Preliminary net orders for North American Class 8 trucks and tractors totaled 20,500 units in September, a 60% increase from the previous month. However, FTR said that figure remains 41% below September 2024 levels, marking the ninth straight month of year-over-year (Y/Y) decline.
Industry Context and Trends
September orders fell short of the 10-year average of 29,499 units. Analysts attribute the slowdown to ongoing trade tensions, tariff uncertainty and a weakened freight market. Both vocational and on-highway segments posted month-over-month gains, with on-highway driving most of the increase. That same segment also accounts for most of the Y/Y decline.
Market Outlook
Over the past 12 months, Class 8 orders have reached 237,467 units. The start of the 2026 order season has been weak, signaling persistent market pressure. While month-to-month gains provide short-term relief, the ongoing Y/Y decline reflects sluggish freight demand and limited carrier profitability. OEMs and suppliers are expected to face continued volatility in order activity.
Tariff Impact on Trucking Market
Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR, said, “On September 25, President Trump announced on social media a 25% Section 232 tariff on imported heavy-duty trucks, effective October 1. However, no official details have been released from the U.S. government yet. It remains unclear when the tariff might be implemented and whether it covers medium-duty trucks, parts or USMCA-compliant imports.”
Moyer added that the news has unsettled fleets, [with] OEMs and suppliers already dealing with weak demand, higher material costs and ongoing supply chain challenges. Steel, aluminum and copper tariffs remain at 50%, contributing to cost pressure and complicating trade relationships with key partners.
Implications for Fleets and OEMs
If implemented, the tariff could raise prices for imported Class 8 trucks by 25%. U.S.-built trucks may also face higher costs due to imported components. Fleets may delay or cancel new orders, increasing demand for used trucks as operators extend vehicle lifecycles.
Reshoring of production could accelerate, but labor shortages and infrastructure limitations remain obstacles. In the near term, fleets and manufacturers are likely to face higher prices, additional supply chain disruption and continued uncertainty.
