Six months after tariff fears shook the auto industry, fleet managers report only minor impacts. While rental operators see tighter supply and rising prices, most commercial fleets say things remain mostly unchanged, though uncertainty still looms.
Remember six months ago, when the world was in dread mode over the prospect of Trump’s tariffs? It came in waves — first steel and aluminum, then aftermarket auto parts, then factory-installed parts, and finally the autos themselves.
In February, S&P Global Mobility projected that 25% tariffs could add more than $6,000 to the average price of a new vehicle. And here we are in September. Where’s the storm?
The anxiety is still there, but to a lesser degree, and it depends on who you talk to.
Tariffs: What Commercial & Corporate Fleets Are Saying
A utility fleet manager with several medium-duty utility-type trucks on order is bracing for increased costs due to raw material price hikes, but hasn’t yet realized them.
One commercial fleet manager summed up the general mood: “Head in the sand… I simply don’t know what to believe until it happens. In the meantime, business as usual.”
Wrote another vocational fleet manager: “I honestly thought I would see a significant increase by now. All have been relatively minor.”
A municipal fleet manager asked his parts department what they are hearing and seeing. His response: “Sorry, but just not a lot of chatter on tariffs causing price increases.”
Others don’t see a reason to change course, at least not yet. “Even with tariffs in place, the extent to which OEMs would pass on costs was not entirely clear,” another commercial fleet manager explained. “As a result, we’re approaching this much like other inflationary pressures by monitoring and managing costs accordingly.”
“After meeting with the OEMs this summer, it looks like the tariff impact for MY26 isn’t as bad as we expected,” one corporate fleet manager explained. “A couple of automakers are passing along higher costs, but most are holding steady. Some are even getting more aggressive with incentives to win business.”
That stability may not last, however. “Tariff policies feel like a moving target, and we’re all a little weary of trying to keep up,” she added. “For 2026, things look flat year-over-year, but after that, it’s anybody’s guess.”
Tariffs & the Car Rental Market
With a more frequent fleet churn, car rental operators report more immediate effects.
Smaller operators saw available MY2025 inventory snapped up by larger buyers, creating scarcity and immediate price hikes. One franchisee noticed a Nissan Sentra S’s price jumping from under $19,500 to over $22,000.
In response, many operators have extended vehicle cycles to ride out uncertainty. This delayed equity recovery but was partially cushioned by stronger resale values, he said.
An Unexpected Tariff Consequence
One corporate fleet manager pointed out a potential HR ripple effect from tariffs: if certain trim levels become unavailable, fleets may be forced to purchase higher trim levels to meet basic needs.
That could blur the established hierarchy where managers receive upgraded trims, creating internal equity issues and potentially requiring policy changes or new selectors.
Why Haven’t Tariffs Hit Fleets Harder?
If fleets haven’t yet felt the sting, suppliers and automakers are bearing the cost burden while fleets and consumers continue to work through available supply. And orders placed before tariffs took effect were price-protected.
In an Aug. 5 note, Cox Automotive’s Erin Keating wrote that automakers had already absorbed $25 billion in tariff obligations through July 2025, to the tune of roughly $2,500 per vehicle in hidden costs.
GM and Ford disclosed billions in tariff impacts in their Q2 earnings, though they held transaction prices steady. Cox still expects retail prices to climb by 4–8% by year-end.
Esteban Contreras of Fleetio cited data from the Center for Automotive Research, which indicates that a 25% tariff on imported auto parts and vehicles could cost the U.S. auto industry an additional $107.7 billion annually, or approximately 33% of the estimated 2024 revenues for U.S. automakers.
Portending Things to Come?
Other industries are feeling the cost increases more acutely now, such as the construction sector, which is experiencing higher prices for aluminum, steel, and copper.
Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, noted that “domestic producers are raising prices in line with the protection tariffs are providing them.”
The July producer price index for construction inputs jumped to its highest in two and a half years.
Another Question Mark
In Washington, the rollercoaster continues, with the latest news that an appeals court ruled most Trump-era tariffs unlawful, but delayed implementation to give the White House time for Supreme Court review.
So uncertainty lingers. “It’s confusing to understand and keep up,” said one fleet manager. “I’ll be glad when the pendulum swings.”
That uncertainty only adds to the volatility in how and when fleets might see an impact.
For now, tariffs remain more noise than crisis for fleets. But now that the pain to suppliers has become real, it’s only a matter of time before the pain trickles down.
