The North American trucking market is rolling into a challenging market environment. After a post-COVID boom where demand far exceeded supply, the industry is now pacing well below its historical average of 285,000 Class 8 units annually.
According to Magnus Koeck, vice president, strategy, marketing and brand management, Volvo Trucks North America, “we are even pacing below” the low-water mark of 212,000 units this year. That’s reflected most acutely in the long-haul sleeper segment, where fleets are holding back.
“We are in a downturn cycle for the Class 8 trucking market,” Koeck said. “I’ve seen lots of ups and downs over the years. This is quite a, I would say, big downturn.”
Fleets Hesitate, Orders Slow
The cause is not just cyclical. Koeck pointed to multiple headwinds: “What we see now is that the fleets are aging their population of units because of the uncertainty and the macroeconomic factors. What’s going to happen with the economy? What’s going to happen with the tariffs? Are the trucks going to be more expensive? Will the tariffs go away, will they not? We still don’t know.”
This reluctance to place orders has created what Koeck called a cautious “hunting season.” Traditionally September through November is when large fleets commit to orders for the following year. But he said this time, “maybe the hunting season will [be] more October, November, December … we shall see. Let’s say mid-December we will have a very good outlook on what next year is going to bring us at least the first six to eight months.”
Emissions Regulations Cloud the Outlook
Another factor weighing on decision-making is emissions regulations. “We also have uncertainties when it comes to the EPA 2027 emission regulations,” Koeck noted. “The hardest thing is not knowing what prerequisites you have.”
Until rules are finalized, many fleets are holding back, wary of higher prices and the possibility of a significant prebuy ahead of the new standards. That creates even more uncertainty in an already soft market.
When Will the Tide Turn?
Despite the current challenges, Koeck emphasized that the market will recover. “The only thing we know [is] that the tide will turn. The question is when the tide will turn and we will have of course another upswing. And then we’ll see will that be in the backend of 2026? In 2027, what’s going to happen?”
He pointed out that fleets cannot indefinitely delay renewing equipment. “You come to a point when it’s from a customer perspective, you have to renew your fleet,” he noted. “Maintenance and parts get more expensive when they get to eight, nine years old. We will come to a point, inevitably, that they have to replenish and renew their fleets.”
Until then, Volvo is leaning on the efficiency gains of its newest trucks. Those figures are based on aerodynamic improvements, faster action on the I-Shift transmission, changes to piston and turbo specifications as well as other improvements that make the all-new VNL 10% more fuel efficient than its predecessor. That improvement in efficiency can save approximately 1,364 gal. of fuel per year, for a truck driving 120,000 mi. annually. According to the company, at $4.00/gal., that’s a savings of nearly $5,500.
